Consumers are either trading down for discounts or trading up for experiences
Mid-year report on restaurant spending indicates coffee and snack concepts are winning, chicken is getting saturated, and pizza is struggling.
June 18, 2026
When they dine out, consumers are making one of two choices these days: They’re either trading down for deals and discounts. Or they’re trading up for premium experiences.
Restaurants in the middle that have less-clear positioning, meanwhile, are losing share.
So says data firm Consumer Edge in its Restaurant 2026 Mid-Year Outlook report, which looks at credit and debit card spending among U.S. restaurants.
The report found that, while overall restaurant spend is up slightly year to date, consumer behavior is increasingly selective, with demand concentrating in specific formats and occasions.
“Consumers are spending differently in 2026 as they reprioritize how to spend their food budget amid a shifting economic environment,” said Michael Gunther, SVP, research & market intelligence for Consumer Edge, in a statement. “The brands winning right now have made a clear case for their value, including compelling bundles, reliable portions and affordable treats, that keep guests coming back.
“For restaurant leaders, the question isn’t just where spend is going, it’s whether their pricing, menu, and strategy are built for consumers that are actually walking through the door today,” he added.
The industry’s fastest growth has been driven by coffee and snack chains like Starbucks, Dunkin’, Dutch Bros, and 7 Brew. That category is up nearly 6% year to date, the report said, indicating that consumers are substituting full meals with coffee, refreshers and snacks that feel more affordable.
The pizza category, meanwhile, has been the biggest loser so far this year, with health-conscious diners shifting to lighter options. The report cites data indicating 1 in 8 U.S. consumers being on GLP-1 drugs, which could be fueling a shift toward lighter, more healthful meals and eroding demand for large, shareable orders.
Other key findings:
Discounts work: McDonald’s and Burger King’s aggressive value campaigns have attracted price-sensitive diners. Culver’s and In-N-Out continued to win on quality and experience. But Wendy’s, Jack in the Box, Sonic and Hardee’s were laggards because of lower perceived value and weaker differentiation, the report found.
Chipotle and Cava, meanwhile, have won on menu innovation and quality at a fair price.
Brands in the middle that are not affordable enough to compete with QSR and lack the quality to entice guests to spend more, are losing ground.
The report calls out Panera Bread and Sweetgreen, along with other smaller chains, as having disappointing sales growth.
Brands hurt by high gas prices: The high cost of gas is squeezing budget-conscious diners and the brands that serve them, including Hardee’s, Golden Corral, Arby’s, Waffle House, and Little Caesars.
QSR chicken may be saturated. Spending in the category remained flat among low-income dining and declined in the middle- and upper-income segments. The total spend for chicken-focused brands increased 1% over the past 12 months, versus a 4% increase the year before.
Newer entrants, like Dave’s Hot Chicken and Jollibee, grew sales. But brands like Popeyes, KFC and Wingstop showed softness, and Raising Cane’s saw a sharp deceleration. The chicken-finger chain’s sales grew 3% over the past year, down from an 18% increase the prior year, the report said.
Seniors are buying. Younger diners, ages 25 to 34, are cutting back spending at both full- and limited-service restaurants. Consumers 65 and older are most resilient.
Those 65+ diners increased spending in limited-service restaurants 1.5% year over year, though their spending in full-service restaurants dropped a modest 1%.
Younger diners (18-24), meanwhile, spent about 2% less at full-service restaurants, compared with a year ago, and their limited-service spend was flat.
The weakest cohort were 25- to 34-year olds, whose spending dropped 1% at limited-service restaurants, and was down 3% at full-service units, in part because they visited them less often.
About the Author
Lisa Jennings
Executive Editor, Restaurant Business
Lisa Jennings is a veteran restaurant industry reporter and editor who covers the fast-casual sector, independent restaurants and emerging chain concepts. Her experience includes other industry publications as well as the daily newspaper The Commercial Appeal in Memphis, Tenn., where she was Food Editor. Her work has been cited in the Los Angeles Times, Business Insider, FoodBeast, The Huffington Post, Time.com and more.
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